Much has been written and analyzed about the US govt.'s $787 billion stimulus package bill which was put in place early this year. Although a major chunk of the stimulus is already in force through tax cuts, TARP funds , unemployment benefits, medicare for poor etc., the common man has not been able to feel the visible effects of the Stimulus on the economy. The idea behind a stimulus package is that the additional govt. dollars pumped into the economy would create jobs, fatten the average consumer's purse, increase consumer confidence and spending, thereby increasing demand for products which in turn increase production and creates more jobs and so on - a faithful covenant of Macroeconomic theory. So, while the govt. was pumping money by advancing rebate checks to the consumers, instead of spending the money, the consumers started saving it and hence, the whole idea of stimulation was thrown off gear as the country's savings increased.
This prologue is to actually demonstrate the success of the recent 'Cash for Clunkers' program under which consumers were able to trade in low-mpg vehicles or 'Clunkers'as they were coined, for newer vehicles and were allowed a handsome rebate of anywhere b/n $3500 - $4500 based on the mpg. The program was so successful that apprehensions of failure was soon met by unforeseen demand spike, urging the lawmakers to pump in more dollars into the program, which incidentally comes to a close today. So, what's the deal? Well, for one, the stimulus money instead of sitting in a bank somewhere actually spurred consumer sales as newer vehicles were bought, dealers were able to get rid of a major chunk of their inventory and also place new orders for production. So popular was this initiative that even people who did not qualify under the program went ahead and bought newer cars - a case for complementary demand.
All is not well with this method though; Rebates on consumer purchases can work only on a short-term basis of stimulating the economy and a particular industry/sector. Besides, the govt. has to face an increasing deficit in light of pumping money as rebates, not to mention the entire process of dealing with the Clunkers and their disposal. Added to that is the inevitable red tapism that exists with any government processes as the dealers are still struggling to file their claims for being reimbursed by the stimulus money. Even though there are some pitfalls, it would be in the best interests to at least follow this process for increasing consumer spending - anything is better than sending out checks only to be encashed later into a savings account. There are talks of the next wave of rebates on home appliances in the fall season. This time there is no concept of trade-in's or Clunkers and it will be interesting to analyze consumer spending in the face of rebates only.
RS
